What will 2025 bring for the apple market?
The global apple market is constantly changing. The changes result from factors such as the size and production method of these fruits or the varietal structure of trees in newly established orchards. The role of the recipient is becoming increasingly important – a more aware retail customer who increasingly looks for fruit free from residues of chemical plant protection products or containing minimal amounts of them.
Forecasts at the beginning of the year
Although, according to updated data presented by the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA), EU apple production in 2024 has been reduced to less than 10 million tons (a 13.1% decrease compared to the 2023 harvest), Europe remains a key player in the global apple market. Significantly smaller apple harvests were recorded in Poland, Germany, Romania and Hungary, among others. Western EU countries, such as France, Italy and Spain, have maintained production of this fruit at a stable level, which partially compensates for the reduced harvest in Central and Eastern European countries.
In December 2024, there were still 4,147 million tons of apples in European storage rooms, which is only 3.4% less than a year earlier at this time. EU stocks of apples of the most important varieties are as follows:
- Golden Delicious – 1.2 million tons;
- Gala – 800,000 tons;
- Red Delicious – 500,000 tons;
- Idared – 300,000 tons;
- Szampion – 200,000 tons.
This means that despite last year’s reduced harvest, the availability of apples at the beginning of this year is still stable.
Varietal tendencies
In addition to quantitative fluctuations in the overall apple harvest, the European market for this fruit is also undergoing gradual changes in terms of both the varietal structure and production methods (in favour of sustainable ones).
When analysing the structure of apple production in Europe, changes in the share of individual varieties are noticeable:
- Golden Delicious – with last year’s harvest of 1,972 million tons, it accounts for 19.3% of the total apple production in the EU countries. This variety is gradually losing its importance to other varieties.
- Gala – with a harvest of 1,351 million tons, it accounts for 13.2% of European production. Its popularity is growing, especially in Western European countries.
- Red Delicious – with a harvest of 616,000 tons, it has a 6% share of the European apple market. This variety has recorded a slight increase in production.
- Idared – with a harvest of 503,000 tonnes, it represents 4.9% of the total EU production, recording a significant decrease.
- Szampion – with a harvest of 356,000 tons, it has a 3.5% market share.
- Granny Smith – with a harvest of 341,000 tons, it accounts for 3.3% of European production.
- Red Jonaprince – with a harvest of 328,000 tons, it accounts for 3.2% of the European market share.
- Cripps Pink – with a harvest of 309,000 tons, it accounts for around 3% of the total EU production.
- Fuji – with a harvest of 306,000 tons, it gives another 3% share in the EU market.
- Elstar – with a harvest of 278,000 tons, it accounts for 2.7% of European production.
It is worth noting that the main European variety – Golden Delicious – is slowly losing its importance, while the role of Gala is growing. In addition, an increase in the planting of club varieties is observed in EU orchards – this trend is more visible especially in Western European countries, where self-sufficiency in fruit production is also sought.
What about the next trading season?
The smaller European apple harvest last year resulted mainly from exceptionally unfavourable weather conditions. However, it is worth bearing in mind that after a period of lower yields, orchards show increased production potential in the next growing season. If weather conditions are favourable for fruit setting in the spring of 2025, and trees have optimal conditions for growth and ripening during the growing season, Europe (and especially Poland, where the drop in production had the greatest impact on the size of European harvests last year) can expect harvests comparable to previous years (in 2023, 11,5 million tons of apples were harvested in EU countries, and in 2022 – 11,9 million tons).
Source:
https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/document/download/17a7b758-e5fc-457c-a7ab-4c387db82f90_en